It’s hard to say whether that’s a McDaniels or a Bill Belichick tendency, but that offense loved to punch it in near the goal line, and that’s one thing Jacobs is great at. The Patriots almost always ranked near the top of the league in rushing attempts with McDaniels as offensive coordinator, and they often ranked top three in rushing TDs. He has 28 TDs in 43 games and Derek Carr has never been a big passing TDs guy. Jacobs had nine rushing TDs last season, 12 the previous year and finished top 10 in the NFL both times. Jacobs hasn’t been a particularly efficient runner, but he does get consistent volume and finds the end zone regularly. But while Jacobs may not be part of Las Vegas’ future plans, that’s all the more reason for them to run him into the ground this season. The Raiders didn’t pick up the final option for next year on the former first-round pick’s contract. It appears Jacobs may not be long in Las Vegas. If Jones gets hurt or phased out, Dillon has a great chance at a big number. He’s the bigger, more reliable, short-yardage back. Dillon’s carries increased from eight to almost 14 a game during the second half and he added five TDs. Jones was the guy for Green Bay early last fall with about 13 carries a game, but that number dropped below 10 over the second half of the season. However, it’s reasonable to expect some of those passing TDs to come on the ground this year. Green Bay should still be very good, especially with a potentially great defense, and the Packers will score plenty of points.
But Hackett is gone and so is Davante Adams, arguably the best red-zone target in the league. Green Bay’s rushing TDs dropped off the past two years as Aaron Rodgers’ passing TDs spiked in OC Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. He ran for 33 TDs in 42 games from 2018 to 2022. Dillon +4000Īaron Jones tied for the league lead in rushing TDs just three years ago for the Packers, finishing with 16 in 2019.
I don’t love Kingsbury, Conner or the Cards, but +2500 is too long for a guy who should probably be one of the five or six favorites. Conner should get the bulk of the carries - especially in the red zone - and may get even more looks the first six weeks of the season while Kyler Murray’s go-to receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is suspended.Īrizona’s lead RB has rushed for double-digit TDs in back-to-back seasons and the Cardinals have ranked 3rd, 4th and 7th in rushing TDs under Kliff Kingsbury. Conner has proven to be a reliable TD threat and had also 12 rushing TDs in 2018.Ĭonner was not an efficient runner for Arizona, but he has a nose for the end zone and very little competition behind him with just 2021 seventh-round pick Eno Benjamin backing him up. Conner was one of those three last season as he rushed for 15 scores in his first season with the Cardinals. We’ve had at least three players with 15 or more touchdowns in three consecutive seasons, so that looks like the bar. Below are five longshots worth our consideration in 2022.īe sure to check out the other season leader bets if you haven’t already: I’d rather divide my bet and sprinkle a handful of longshots. I don’t like betting on favorites in rushing categories with all the volatility from year to year. Injuries besiege the position every year and it’s more of a volume, health and opportunity game than anything else. Taylor and Henry feel like overwhelming favorites in this - and any other rushing - category, but running back is the most volatile position in the NFL. In fact, only Tomlinson and Smith have led the league in rushing TDs more than twice since 1968, so that’s bad news for Henry too. That pattern would suggest Taylor repeats as the TD king this fall.īut the last running backs to go back-to-back before this stretch were LaDainian Tomlinson and Priest Holmes in the 2000s, and those are the only guys since Emmitt Smith in the mid-90s. Henry won the crown in 2019-20 and Todd Gurley won it the two years before that. With Taylor and Henry being so dominant, is it even worth looking at the rest of the field? Henry was the rushing TDs leader in both 2019 (16 TDs) and 2020 (17 TDs) and opened last season as the favorite at +500. He missed over half the season and still finished tied for sixth. Henry had 10 rushing TDs in only eight games before getting hurt. He was a monster, far more productive than every other RB, and opens the new season as a +500 favorite to again lead the league in rushing TDs.ĭerrick Henry is the second favorite at +700. Taylor ran for 18 TDs and also led the league with 332 carries and 1,811 rushing yards. Jonathan Taylor was last year’s league leader. Who will lead the NFL in rushing touchdown in 2022?
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